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Birnie, J and Yates, A (1991) Cost prediction using decision/risk analysis methodologies. Construction Management and Economics, 9(02), 171-86.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: decision analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; probability; risk analysis; utility theory
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199100000015
  • Abstract:

    The ability to make good cost predictions is a very important aspect of the construction process. The methods used have historically relied on subjective judgements based on data which have proved satisfactory. The formal methodologies of decision/risk analysis have been little used in construction. This paper looks at how the use of decision trees, utility theory and the Monte Carlo simulation technique might improve human judgement in cost prediction. The successful application of decision/risk analysis to a housing refurbishment contract is described in a case study.

Fellows, R F (1991) Escalation management: forecasting the effects of inflation on building projects. Construction Management and Economics, 9(02), 187-204.

Ibbs, W C (1991) Innovative contract incentive features for construction. Construction Management and Economics, 9(02), 157-69.

Khosrowshahi, F (1991) Simulation of expenditure patterns of construction projects. Construction Management and Economics, 9(02), 113-32.

Newton, S (1991) An agenda for cost modelling research. Construction Management and Economics, 9(02), 97-112.

Ogunlana, S O (1991) Learning from experience in design cost estimating. Construction Management and Economics, 9(02), 133-50.

Singh, S (1991) Cost estimation of prestressed concrete beam and reinforced concrete slab construction. Construction Management and Economics, 9(02), 205-15.

Srinivasan, R and Harris, F C (1991) Lane rental contracting. Construction Management and Economics, 9(02), 151-5.